Climate Challenge

Stuff i learned . . .. . .

Some of the scenarios focus on emissions extremes. For example, the A1F1 scenario, which describes a fossil fuel-intensive future, predicts global carbon dioxide emissions rising to around 30 gigatonne of carbon (GtC) per year by 2100. We currently emit around 10 GtC per year, so this scenario predicts a three-fold increase in emissions, which is very high indeed, and could lead to global temperatures increasing by 4 - 6°C.

The lowest emissions scenario, B1, suggests carbon dioxide emissions increasing slightly in coming decades but then falling to lower than current levels by 2100. However, even this optimistic emissions scenario results in global temperatures increasing by 1 or 2°C, which will still have a huge impact globally.

 

The second figure shows predicted temperature changes for each of the scenarios, starting with historical data from 1800. The important thing to note is that there has been almost no global warming for the past 200 years, and that all scenarios show some warming, although some are not as high as others.